March 15, 2011


(A random, uninteresting post on geo politics) 

A couple of days back one survey confirmed what world had come to recognize slowly - that it is not the US President who is the most powerful person in the world, but the Chinese Premier Hu Jintao (newspaper link). This is one of the after effects of the global financial crisis. Some people jokingly mention that soon history would be divided not by B.C. and A.D., but by pre 9/11 and post 9/11. And just to make the point clear, the crisis was just a manifestation of the fact that US economy had lost a lot in 9/11 (in the incident, as well as in wars which followed). The treasury had to raise the rates when deficit got out of control, and all hell broke loose. So, in a stroke, US lost its status as the biggest super power and US President no longer ruled the world. 

Slowly and slowly, the world is coming to acknowledge the fact that soon there would be a change in status. Soon China would be almost the same size as US, and then go past it. Lets keep it serious, and not unnecessarily put India in the equation (we are miles behind in all the parameters, and I still can't find the reason as to why we are put in the same bracket as China. They must fume at the mention a similar way we get angry over clubbing of India and Pakistan over any issue). The point is, China is already past Japan in GDP size (and post the quake the differential would grow), and US is next. 

My only concern is, power transfer are seldom peaceful. If you are an aging tiger, and a young wolf is getting stronger every day, what do you do? Do you peacefully wait for it to grow stronger than you, and one day defeat/kill you? Or you make some pre-emptive strikes against it and leave it much weaker? We are entering a very dangerous period, and I think we may have some BIG geo-political events in the coming decade. 

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