Power

(A random, uninteresting post on geo politics) 

A couple of days back one survey confirmed what world had come to recognize slowly - that it is not the US President who is the most powerful person in the world, but the Chinese Premier Hu Jintao (newspaper link). This is one of the after effects of the global financial crisis. Some people jokingly mention that soon history would be divided not by B.C. and A.D., but by pre 9/11 and post 9/11. And just to make the point clear, the crisis was just a manifestation of the fact that US economy had lost a lot in 9/11 (in the incident, as well as in wars which followed). The treasury had to raise the rates when deficit got out of control, and all hell broke loose. So, in a stroke, US lost its status as the biggest super power and US President no longer ruled the world. 


Slowly and slowly, the world is coming to acknowledge the fact that soon there would be a change in status. Soon China would be almost the same size as US, and then go past it. Lets keep it serious, and not unnecessarily put India in the equation (we are miles behind in all the parameters, and I still can't find the reason as to why we are put in the same bracket as China. They must fume at the mention a similar way we get angry over clubbing of India and Pakistan over any issue). The point is, China is already past Japan in GDP size (and post the quake the differential would grow), and US is next. 


My only concern is, power transfer are seldom peaceful. If you are an aging tiger, and a young wolf is getting stronger every day, what do you do? Do you peacefully wait for it to grow stronger than you, and one day defeat/kill you? Or you make some pre-emptive strikes against it and leave it much weaker? We are entering a very dangerous period, and I think we may have some BIG geo-political events in the coming decade. 

The Japanese Miracle

First things first - this post is not about me offering my well wishes and thoughts to the people of Japan. Or how much I wish they would all come out of it soon. I do feel against all  these tragedies, but I'm against forwarding/tweeting/blogging about them. And lets be real, my writing 50 words about something happening over a thousand miles away won't help even an ant living there. So, lets stop uselessly caring and pretending, and unless we really want to do something, lets move on with our life. (I was inundated with all the #prayforjapan tagged messages on my twitter time line, and I'm sure more than half of those guys haven't ever helped a living soul on this planet). 

Japan has always been a miracle, and am sure it would come out of this crisis pretty soon. I have always wondered about such a small country, which was devastated post the World War, with so little natural resources, small land size and even population, could become world's second largest economy. Japan has never been the most stable region - geographically, and suffers earth quakes every now and then. And yet, its perhaps the most advanced region in the world, with amongst the highest per capita GDP. Everyone with dreams goes to USA or UK, but in my view, the Japanese miracle exceeds both of them. For the past couple of decades, Japanese economy has been stagnant, and its stock market Index (Nikkei) has dropped by almost 75% of its peak levels. The future looks bleak for the country, and it has had two decades of zero to negative growth. However, its still one of the most prosperous country on the planet. And I have a feeling that some of the recent events might actually work in its favor. Like the post-war economy provided plenty of opportunities of growth, similarly, the post earthquake economy may see replacement demand from industries and household. Lets see how this pans out. 

I plan to visit the country some time this year. I have heard lot of good things about the place - from almost everyone who has visited it. The people are really wonderful, and one always wants to come back to this place. Also, I have seen some of the snaps, and they are awesome. So hopefully I will be able to plan something around middle of the year, and see the miracle first hand. 

About Subways and McDonalds

A couple of days back I was reading the news about Subway lapping past McDonald in terms of number of stores. So, its official now - a simple sandwich store has more stores globally than the mighty McDonald. It does seem hard to believe, that something as simple as Subway is now the leading fast food chain in the world. 

(Its a different matter that I still do not see them succeeding in India - compared to other economies where McD or Subway are cheap food options, in India they are not so cheap. With one getting a meaty 'Grilled Sandwich' or Vada-Pav in every corner of Mumbai (and similar stuff in other cities), am not sure of the appeal of these outlets. Apart from the hygiene and cool quotient, they don't offer any substantial improvements). 

It got me thinking about how Twitter and Facebook might shape up in coming years. Or for that matter the other Social Networking sites which might come up. Facebook is very much like the McDonald in this comparison, and Twitter is very much like Subway (the comparison has to be back dated by a few years, when McD was much larger). Facebook has the universal appeal, but has much more of media attention (and hence scrutiny as well). And perhaps the most serious concern is the target segment - its mostly used by school and college going kids to share some random snaps or indulge into harmless and useless banter. But as they grow up, they would use it less and less - its addictive, and they know it. Much like the fast food, they like it - at the same time knowing that its not good for health, and hence would very much like to limit it. And may be in five years time, some of the most heavy users of Facebook would out grow it. 

Twitter on the other hand has endorsements from a whole lot of celebrities (and that too for free, now try to beat that!!!). Almost everyone whom people would like to 'follow' are on Twitter, and as long as there are celebrities in the world, a 'twitter like' service may have its appeal. People from all age are using it (very much like Subway), and they don't intend to leave the habit one day. So, most of the users here may be sticky, and continue to use it years later. A few things would necessarily change, but the essence may remain. And it has lesser privacy concerns as well - and one-way communication ensures you are not obliged to respond immediately. 

Well, these are just how I feel they will evolve over time. However, as with most internet and tech companies, its very very difficult to predict the changes - until they happen. However, given the current valuations (with FB almost valued at 10 times the valuation of Twitter), I would put my money on Twitter over the long term. Even though I admire FB as a company, and am a big fan of its interface and design. 

The Coalition Dra(r)ma

It was bound to happen - you cannot make 170,000 Cr without making a few enemies. DMK is humiliated and hurt, and rightly so. It was their man who masterminded the loot, and when everything was secured, Madamji and MMS got him arrested, and declared there was no money to share. Overnight, 170,000 Cr changed to 0, all thanks to one Mr. Sibal. It must have been a deadly combination of Italian Hawala and Oxford Economics which accounted for such a large sum of money. I can hear a Katrina Kaif's alter ego shout - 'Humne Bofors ka paisa nahi khaya hai, those agents didn't pass the promised commissions to us. But this time, we ensured there was no middlemen, and saari dealings humare PMO se hi ho.' MMS is the Dhritrastra of this age, and all his ministers are looting the helpless country. Every now and then, he keeps asking - 'yeh kya ho raha hai, but goes silent again until there is a large uproar.'

With the state assembly elections approaching, there is palpable tension all around. With the money now gone, DMK is fighting hard to run all its companies - now it somehow needs to secure working capital. Its hoping it can get more than 150 seats in the assembly, and at an average of 100 Cr per seat, can still reach its target of 15000 Cr for this fiscal. Madamji on the other hand is still pissed with the Finance Minister - he forgot to add her share in the budget and by mistake announced the fiscal deficit as 4.6% for the next year. Now she has to choose between a castle in Italy, and a sea-facing house in Mumbai. Earlier she was planning for both, the castle for herself and the sea-facing apartment for Rahul baba. Rahul Baba wants to see the poverty in India (after he missed out seeing it due to his stay abroad for almost 99% of his life), and who better than the sea to advise him, which has seen it all. A clueless imported prince in the waiting, and a blind man about to be retired - state of affairs in the next wanna be superpower. 

Movie Fest

I have re-started my movie marathon sessions, and am now watching a couple of movies per day. As I might have mentioned earlier, back in my college days I had planned to watch the complete IMDB Top 250 movies. But like so many dreams from the college days, this one too remained just a thought. This year, I plan to give it another shot, and hopefully will be watching a lot more from it. 

Saw quite a few movies recently, and here are my mini-reviews:

Gangajal - Had heard a lot about the national award winning movie, and the performance by Ajay Devgan. And I wasn't disappointed either. I'm not a great fan of Ajay Devgan (specially in a comedy movie), but this was one of the movie where perhaps no one could have played the role better - just like Company, Once Upon A Time In Mumbai, etc. Certainly worth a watch. 

Patiala House - I had expected this to be trash, just like the other AK movies in recent times. And I was happy to be proved wrong. This was a Yash Raj/K Jo formula movie, and after zillions of years AK did a sensible film. However, it fared badly as I guess he fell pray to 'Bhediya Aaya' syndrome - and no one expected a nice movie from him. 

7 Khoon Maaf - If its Vishal Bhardwaj, anything is Maaf. Not many people have 'really' liked it (5-star level), and its not a classic in the same league as his earlier works. However, its still a very nicely made movie, and Priyanka is certainly one of the best actress today (not that she has much competition with industry filled with Sonam Kapoors, who can't even act to save her life). 

Black Swan - Not a typical movie, in fact may not even qualify as being a movie. It could very well be a personal diary of Nina (the lead character). Natalie Portman is awesome in her role, and portrays the character wonderfully well. Not many people will like the movie, but its powerful, and meaningful cinema. If you are a Cinema lover (and not just 'movie fan'), then you may like it.